Sports Analytics Glossary
Plain definitions of the market terms, simulation outputs and stake sizes you will meet in Betessi — and a note wherever the app does not measure something a term describes.
Market Movement Terms
Price moves leave a trail. Line Movement reads it from prices alone — the opening price, the current price at ten sportsbooks, and the fair value the market implies. Some terms below describe money that price data cannot see; they are here because the market uses them.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM)
A line that moves against the side most of the public is on — the popular side gets a better number, not a worse one. It is usually read as professional money on the other side. Spotting it needs ticket counts, which Betessi does not have: Line Movement shows the move, not who made it.
Opening vs. Current Price
The calculation behind Line Movement’s Market moved chip: the opening price set against the fair value implied by the current market, with the vig removed. When the open beats today’s fair value, the market has moved away from it — a signal about where money went, not a recommendation at today’s price.
Steam Moves
A sudden move in the same direction at many sportsbooks within minutes, usually after professional money hits several books at once. On Line Movement it shows as a large open-to-current move repeated across the books’ prices.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
The comparison between the price you took and the final price when the game starts. Taking +150 on a side that closes at +110 is positive CLV — over a large sample, the most reliable sign that your prices were good.
The Monte Carlo Block
For every game the model prices, AI Predictions plays the game out 10,000 times from two inputs — the model’s margin and the market’s total — and reads back these figures.
Model Margin
The Betessi model’s expected margin for the game — how many points or runs it has one side winning by — with a spread (σ) calibrated per sport for how far real results stray from it. The Model score row is this margin laid on the market’s total.
Market Total
The sportsbooks’ posted total. The simulation anchors its scores to it rather than inventing its own, with a variance taken from this season’s finals once there are enough. The block says which half is the model’s and which is the market’s.
80% of Finals
Where the middle 80% of the 10,000 simulated finals land for each side — the heart of the distribution, with the blowouts and shootouts left in the tails. Beside it, Home wins outright gives the share of trials the home side won.
Implied Line & Edge
The spread the model’s margin implies, set beside the market’s. When they differ, the block states the edge in points and the side it favors — a disagreement with the market, not a promise.
Units & Stakes
A stake says how strongly a call is made. Keeping stakes consistent is what makes a record readable — and what carries you through the losing runs every model has.
Unit Scale (1–5)
Every Betessi pick carries a stake from 1 to 5 units: Lean (1–2u), Play (3u), Strong play (4u) and Max play (5u). Only 3 units and up are published or texted. A unit is a fixed amount you set for yourself; the scale says how many of them a call is worth.
Drawdown Tolerance
Planning for variance. Even sound models go through losing runs of 10–15 units. The discipline is to keep stakes flat through them — never chase a loss by doubling the next position.
Resizing a Unit
Changing what a unit is worth. Do it on a fixed schedule — monthly, say — and only after a sustained change in the amount you set aside, never in reaction to a streak.